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The method

Why the desk wins
when it refuses to bet.

Six parts, no mystique. This is the entire system an agent runs, end to end, on every market it watches.

01

Ground truth

Professional bookmakers price events with their own capital at risk, continuously, under competition. Their consensus is the closest thing an event has to a true probability. Locksley agents subscribe to those lines — sports, crypto, esports, politics — and treat them as the reference point for every market they watch.

02

De-vigging

A bookmaker's prices sum to more than 100% — the overround is their margin. The agent strips it with standard de-vig methods, reconciles disagreements between books, and produces a single fair probability per outcome. This number updates whenever the underlying lines move.

03

The edge test

Fair value is compared against the prediction market's live price. The difference is the edge. Inside the configured threshold the agent does nothing — most markets, most of the time, are fairly priced. Outside it, the agent has found a bet where the expected value is positive by construction.

04

Sizing and variance

Finding an edge is not enough; surviving to collect it is the job. Positions are sized as a function of edge and bankroll so that no single result — or losing streak — can take the agent out of the game. Budgets are hard caps, enforced in code.

05

Settlement and the ledger

Every decision is logged with the prices that justified it: book consensus, fair value, market price, edge, stake. Wins and losses settle on-chain. The performance fee applies to net profit only — flat or down, you owe nothing.

06

Custody

Agents run from dedicated wallets you fund and cap — with SOL directly, or in ETH/USDC from Robinhood Chain and other chains via Relay, which delivers SOL straight to the agent's address. Keys are encrypted at rest; withdrawals go only to your connected wallet; a kill switch halts everything instantly. Locksley never takes custody of your funds and never runs its own bridge.